Public Climate Outlook 2026
Climate Outlook 2026
Centre for Sustainable Development Reform | Public Briefing
Global Temperature Trajectory
Global mean surface temperature continues to track above the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement.
- 2025 annual mean: +1.58°C above pre-industrial baseline
- 2026 Q1 projection: +1.62°C (record Southern Hemisphere quarter)
- Trend: 0.04°C per year acceleration over the past decade
- IPCC AR6 high-emissions pathway alignment confirmed
Australian Impact Assessment
Climate impacts are intensifying across key sectors of the Australian economy.
- Heatwave frequency: 40% increase in days above 40°C since 2000
- Rainfall variability: South-eastern agricultural zones 18% below long-term average
- Bushfire season: Extended by 6 weeks compared to 1990–2010 baseline
- Marine ecosystems: Great Barrier Reef experienced fourth mass bleaching in seven years
Sector Risk Summary
| Sector | Risk Level | Key Exposure | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | High | Drought, heat stress | Worsening |
| Coastal infrastructure | High | Sea-level rise, storm surge | Worsening |
| Energy | Medium | Peak demand, grid stability | Stable |
| Health | Medium | Heat-related illness, vector-borne disease | Worsening |
| Water resources | High | Supply variability, quality degradation | Worsening |
2026 Research Agenda
Priority research streams for the Centre in 2026:
- Adaptation finance mechanisms — Cost-benefit analysis of state-level adaptation investment
- Agricultural resilience modelling — Crop yield projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
- Coastal retreat policy — Economic analysis of managed retreat versus protection
- Health system preparedness — Heat-health early warning system evaluation